Contenders?

Matt LeCroy

The Barnstormers are 16 games into the second half and alone in first place. They’re 9-7 and one game ahead of York in the crowded Freedom Division. Lancaster’s four-game sweep of Newark gave everyone reason to believe the home team might stay in this race.

Here are five reasons the Barnstormers may contend followed by five reasons they may not.

1

Matt LeCroy

For the first time since the end of the 2006 season, the Barnstormers have a truly elite hitter. LeCroy is hitting .426 with two homers and 29 RBIs in his last 28 games. This isn’t a hot streak any longer. This is a month of sheer dominance at the plate. LeCroy’s overall average is .331, which would rank in the top 10 if he had enough at-bats to qualify.

2

Table setters

Mike Woods and Danny Gonzalez are among the top 1-2 combinations in the league — when they actually bat there. They both get on base roughly 40 percent of the time and Woods is the league’s top stolen base threat. That means LeCroy is getting a ton of at-bats with men in scoring position. The slugger is hitting .397 in those situations. Clutch hitting cures a lot of ills.

3

Offensive surge

The Barnstormers have scored 44 runs in their last five wins. It could be a fluke or it could be a sign that the lineup has turned a corner. Ian Bladergroen and Ivanon Coffie give Lancaster two left-handed bats it was lacking. That’s particularly helpful at home. Things could look even better if Bladergroen returns to early-season form. In the sweep of Newark, the Barnstormers showed they can win slugfests, which is essential in this league.

4

Three quality starters

If you glance at the scores each day, you’ll see the Atlantic League has settled into its usual mid-summer pattern. No one has enough pitching. The Barnstormers could have the best 1-2-3 group of starters in the league. Jason Scobie has a 2.45 ERA in 14 2/3 innings. Eric Ackerman has bounced back from a brief stumble to regain his form. Shane Youman has won back-to-back starts and is showing signs of improvement.

5

Competition is weaker

Somerset is still probably the most talented team in the division, but the Patriots lack incentive. They’re already playoff bound. York is lighting up the scoreboard like a pinball machine, but hasn’t pitched well lately. Newark’s depth has taken a serious hit. The back of the Bears’ rotation and the bottom of their lineup is nothing special at the moment. But watch out for that team. It could reload in a hurry if a few guys get healthy.

1

They need another bat

Even with their recent surge, the Barnstormers could use another outfielder they could stick in the middle of the order. Imagine Woods and Gonzalez hitting in front of a 3-4-5 trio that included LeCroy, Bladergroen and one more elite hitter. That could be the difference between winning the second half and fading over the final 54 games. Lancaster needs to find that guy. It needs to show it can make the big upgrade.

2

Starting pitching depth

This issue plagues every team in the league. There just aren’t enough starters to go around at this point. The Barnstormers would like to add another one so they can move Yamel Guevara back to the bullpen or replace Nick Renault. Neither of them has gone deep into games, which puts a strain on the bullpen. Guevara hasn’t gone past five innings in his four starts. Renault hasn’t lasted past the fifth inning in his last five.

3

Bullpen defections

The team’s incredible bullpen depth has been depleted. It lost closer Jose Cabrera early this month and now it lost his replacement: Judd Songster. This means Sendy Rleal and Paul Thorp are going to be put in more important roles. Both have shown they can handle it. Rleal has a 3.30 ERA over his last nine appearances, with only one rough outing in the bunch. Thorp has a career ERA of 2.66. He just needs to be used more.

4

Defensive woes

The defense has been awful this month. The Barnstormers have committed 31 errors in 22 games. They’ve mostly gotten away with it. The miscues have led to just 13 unearned runs. In the big picture, Lancaster will need to shore this up. Giving away outs in this league — and at Clipper Magazine Stadium — makes it really difficult to sustain success.

5

Lack of consistency

The Barnstormers still haven’t shown they can excel over the long haul. They’re riding their second four-game winning streak to date. This is a high-water mark and one shouldn’t make too much of it. Keep in mind, Lancaster is 26-25 over the last two months. Someone is going to make a move in this division eventually. The Barnstormers need to prove they can play better than .500 ball for an extended stretch.